I will analyze the numbers when I have time on Sat., however, I think there is a bit of wishful thinking in blaming the weather for the poor growth in Jan. jobs. The weather perhaps had a greater impact on the decline in the unemployment rate as people did not look for a job and thus were not classified as part of the workforce. Next month there could be a big increase in the unemployment rate as people start looking for jobs again.
With an estimate 3.2% growth rate Q4 for the US economy, I would have expected around 150,000 new jobs. This is perhaps just enough to cover new entrants into the workforce. GDP growth will need to be much higher to make a dent in existing unemployment.
As time goes on, the skills of workers who are unemployed begin to decrease. Though the WSJ attempts to paint a brighter picture for employment prospects, the reality is that it will be years before America reaches full employment. Some people this is not possible before 2014 or beyond.
I feel that employment is a structural problem for the American economy, which historically has been an engine of job growth. I see little that will improve the situation.
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