Monday, December 13, 2010

The Story of Commodities for 2010


I am not sure that the conclusions and implications put forth in the following article are completely valid:

Pleven, Liam, 2010. Commodities paths diverge. The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 13.

It is much too early to call a medium term decoupling of commodities prices. If anything, commodity prices can become volatile very quickly.

I did find the following statement very important to note:

"The gap between the performance of Dow Jones-UBS indexes that track agricultural and energy commodities is close to its widest point of the year, with crops up 28% this year and fuels down 13%, and industrial metals smack in the middle, up 8%."

The move in agricultural commodity prices relative to other commodities might be the beginning of a trend. It is my belief that long-term commodity prices will increase significantly, driving the need to more efficient agricultural practices including the innovative use of information technology.

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