Sunday, December 26, 2010

Energy Prices going Up - Regional Agricultural Systems


Since being introduced to the topic at a 2008 USDA ARS meeting in Orono, Maine, I have been passionate about developing regional agricultural systems. Several months before the 2008 meeting, a National Program Leader from ARS had sent along some introductory ideas on the subject.

I think the base for my enthusiasm is a fundamental belief that land use issues are overlooked because America has such abundant natural resources and wealth. The building boom and subsequent speculative frenzy beginning in 2001 destroyed a great deal of usable farm land especially in areas like the East Coast Megalopolis spanning from Boston to Washington D.C. Long-term, it is in the best interests of America to find a more reasonable way for land-use planning that takes advantage of free market economics, the power of information, and the naturally occurring optimization from conditions of free choice.

There are many opportunities for regional agricultural systems. Though the economies of scale for concentrated growing areas such as California and Florida are impressive, the savings in terms of transportation cost (and energy) resulting from regional agricultural systems works against scale for specific crops. America is a big country. As transportation costs go up, there will be an inevitable shift toward increased local production. I believe that it is wise to begin planning for this outcome.

These are a few of the posts I have made on the topic during the past several years:





Even a modest uptick in global economic activity is almost certain to increase transportation cost.

The following quote from Alan Abelson's weekly column in Barron's forecasts that energy cost is in the rise. In turn, this helps to drive food costs higher.

"The upward spiral in crude to $91 a barrel is on its way, predicts the commodity bunch at Barclays Capital, to $100, so Jane and John are obviously going to feel the pinch all the more. Dave Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff's chief economist and strategist (but a fine fellow nonetheless), estimates the run-up in energy prices is costing American consumers something like $60 billion a year. Toss in the rising cost of food, which like energy is conveniently omitted from the official tally of so-called core inflation, and pinch morphs into squeeze."

Abelson, Alan, 2010. 'Tis the season to be wary. Baron's, Dec. 24.

The time is now to find new ways to develop regional agricultural systems. I believe a business approach that focuses on ways to enhance the free market is the answer.

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