USDA - More on the Program Crops Forecasting Issue

More news about forecasting issues and the USDA:

"Agricultural markets opened sharply higher after the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its soybean crop forecast while raising projected exports. Soybean futures hit a 26-month high of $13.4475 a bushel as traders prepared for a smaller harvest to meet feverish buying by China, the world's largest importer.

December corn futures rose 2.6% to a 27-month high of $6.0050 a bushel after the USDA cut its crop forecast for a third consecutive month. Cotton quickly shot up by the maximum exchange-allowed daily amount to a record $1.5123 a pound on the USDA's prediction of a reduced harvest and strong demand."

Baskin, Brian, 2010. Commodities soar as surging demand meets dwindling supplies. The Wall Street Journal, Nov. 9.

I think there are some better ways to do forecasting! We have some good ideas at MIT about this issue.