Wednesday, March 23, 2011

How Serious Is Political Risk for Private Equity in Africa

Just as Africa is being touted as the last investment frontier capable of delivering super returns, the recent populist ousting of Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak, and Tunisian president, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, has raised for many investors the continent's old ghost of political risk. And, yes, in extreme situations such as we have seen in Egypt, where trade and tourism stopped almost completely for nearly three weeks, it is difficult for businesses of most types and sizes to escape the negative consequences.
However, for those of us who've been operating in the private equity field in Africa for more than a decade, the political upheavals happening now are very different from the internecine and anti-colonial warfare that has scarred the continent in the past. They're part of the positive transformation of Africa - leading to democracy and greater stability. What the world is seeing is an inevitable extension of what happened in South Africa in the 1990s, with the release from prison of Nelson Mandela and the conversion of the country into a democracy with one of the most advanced bills of rights in the world - and an economy that is now ranked 45th out of 133 by the World Economic Forum's 2010 Global Competitiveness Report.
It's also an extension of the socio-economic changes that have resulted from steady investment by organisations like ours in mid-market businesses that supply the basic necessities of life to their local communities. Entrepreneurs running good mid-sized businesses that directly serve their communities create employment, and, as the usual knock-on effect, more wealth within their societies. Once that bug bites, it's very difficult to keep a repressive regime going.
So, private equity in Africa's mid-market hasn't just provided much needed funds. It's laid the groundwork for political change - and, ultimately, transformation at every level of society: social, economic, and political. And it has done so at an extraordinary juncture in history. The comprehensive transformation of society on which Africa is now embarking, wittingly or otherwise, has never been attempted in modern times or in such a globalised environment.
By contrast, when affirmative action - aimed at bringing economically disadvantaged people into positive economic action - was initiated in the United States (US) about 50 years ago, country economies were more isolated. What the US did in order to bring the more or less 15% of its racially underprivileged people into the mainstream had little knock-on effect on its economic partners or, really, on global opinion of the US. The same can be said of Japan's extraordinarily successful attempts during the latter half of the twentieth century to transfer its economy from the hands of a financial, political, and social elite into the hands of the middle class. No-one was watching. Very few outside of Japan were affected - until the transformation was complete and Japan had become an economic force. Aside from the strategic interest followed by economic support from the US, Japan was free to implement, misstep, and tweak its system until it got it right.
As Egypt and Tunisia have realised, African countries have no such luxury. They have to grapple with policy reforms and socio-economic problems of massive dimensions under a global spotlight. Worse, they must participate in a knowledge-based, globalised economy along with other developing countries, all competing in the same markets and for the same investment funds. If a country slips in terms of competitive capability, its place will be taken by any one of 20 or 30 others.
That said, Africa has a huge advantage. In the absence during the past several decades of large corporates and multi-nationals, the small and medium-sized businesses have kept local economies alive.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/5996070

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

The Emerging Issue of QE2 Expiration

This is a short but effective article that communicates concern over several world events and the lack of movement in stock prices in response to the uncertainty.

Vigna, Paul, 2011. It's easy to keep drinking when the fed's buying. DowJones Market Talk, Mar. 22.

The author attributes the lack of concern to Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2), the program by the Fed to purchase government bonds thus injecting large sums of money into the US economy. Of course so many bondholders are from foreign countries that there is perhaps some leakage in the simulative effect of the program.

The main issue; what happens to stock prices when QE2 stops in Jun.?

I would like to see more articles in the business press on this topic. My guess is that there will be down ward pressure on stock prices.

I agree with the author that no one yet knows the full effect of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. It will take several more weeks to play out.

Regional Agricultural Systems - The Need for Basic Research


I notice several articles in today's WSJ that note the effect of rising fuel prices on various industries.

For example, Delta Airlines is cutting capacity because of fuel costs.

I continue to believe that regional agricultural systems in the face of mounting costs of transportation are an extremely important topic to study. Sadly, enough basic research does not exist on the topic, and efforts to create conditions for implementation are fractured.

It is my hope there will be more research in the area soon.

Excellent Article in the WSJ on the Dangers of the Federal Deficit


This is not a new message, however, this article puts the issues front and center:

Seib, Gerald F., 2011. As budget battle rages on, a quiet cancer grows. The Wall Street Journal, Mar. 8.

For a long time, I have been concerned regarding the trade and budget deficits. In various ways, these have become structural and are draining resources from the US at an alarming rate.

In countries like Japan, most of the government bond purchases are by citizens. Interest payments stay in the country.

In the US, perhaps as much as 60% of Fed Bonds are purchased by overseas governments. Hence, interest payments on American debt moves overseas, taking money out of the economy.

From the article,

"A recent study of the debt sponsored by the National Academy of Sciences cites one credible projection that, by 2030, the U.S. could be transferring 7% of its entire economic output, or $2.5 trillion, to foreigners every year to service its debt."

Given what appears to be a situation of structural low economic growth in the wake of the Financial Crisis of 2008, the only salvation of Federal budget cuts beginning with FY2011.

Everyone needs to work together to turn this situation around for the benefit of America.

Monday, March 21, 2011

The Japanese Yen - A Major Issue for Mon.

The continued strengthening of the Yen is a very bad thing for Japan and the world.

The WSJ has a front-page article on the issue in today's digital edition. Evidently, markets are closed on Mon. in Japan for a holiday, yet the Central Bank of Japan expects to intervene into currency markets to prevent the Yen from slipping to less than 80 per dollar.

My theory is that the imbalance of capital flows brought about by pegging to the Dollar (China) has led to the Yen being stronger even before the earthquake and tsunami.

A further increase in the Yen will snuff off Japanese exports and allow other East Asian nations to gain market share for various manufactured products. China has a great deal to gain from an ultra strong Yen, even as the ruling elite chooses to fix the rate of exchange for the Yuan.

The great natural disaster of the Sendai earthquake and tsunami might be the event to trigger an accelerated currency war between China and the rest of the world.

It is my opinion that this is the reason why the G-7 is acting together to stop the Yen's rise.

Video from Japan - Earthquake and Tsunami


Special thanks to a colleague from Japan who has passed along these videos of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami:



In viewing the second video, I wonder about the extent of less severe losses in urban areas like water systems, streets, and other infrastructure. The amount of ground movement and shear shown in the video is amazing.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Japan Earthquake Aftershocks


As I understand, there continue to be aftershocks in Japan. These are frightening people, many who have not had a full nights rest since last Fri. when the earthquake and tsunami hit.

This seems like a significant amount of seismic activity. In some cases, the aftershocks have been classified as earthquakes along different fault lines.

I remain quite concerned for Japan.

A New Report from Fukushima - #5 & #6

Significant News Report from CNN,

"[1:10 a.m. ET Saturday, 2:10 p.m. Saturday in Tokyo] Workers have drilled three holes apiece in the ceilings of the Nos. 5 and 6 nuclear reactors at the embattled Fukushima Daiichi power plant in order to alleviate pressure, a Tokyo Electric Power Co. official said.

This was done to release hydrogen gas and steam, whose buildup contributed to explosions at the plants Nos. 1, 2 and 3 units. Experts say the emission of hydrogen gas may be an indication of a partial nuclear meltdown, which may happen when nuclear fuel rods inside are not fully covered by water.

There have been no such explosions at the plant's Nos. 5 and 6 units.

Japanese authorities have said that a diesel generator is now powering a cooling system for those two reactors."

From,

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/19/japan-quake-live-blog-workers-drill-holes-to-alleviate-pressure-at-plant/?hpt=T2

I find this post concerning because previous reports were that #5 and #6 had little risk of explosion and temperatures of the cooling water for both units was under control but rising to about 80c.

If hydrogen gas is present, it is possible that these spent fuel pools are out o control. This represents the potential of a fire and more radioactive release.

The Harsh News from GM


The news of GM's cutting of nonessential spending worldwide is a story that will perhaps play out over and over again as disruption to supply chains from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami becomes clear.

From the WSJ:

"GM has been the most vocal of Detroit's auto makers in voicing concerns about the magnitude of potential supply chain troubles in the wake of Japan's disaster."

Terlep, Sharon, 2011. GM halts 'nonessential' spending globally due to japan crisis. The Wall Street Journal, Mar. 19.

In my view, this adds huge uncertainties to the American economic recovery.

This article outlines plans to shut plants in Louisiana, Europe, and S. Korea because of the lack of parts.

Saturday, March 19, 2011

The Serious Situation in Japan - Week 1


It will take perhaps a few more weeks for initial analysis to be done regarding the effect of the earthquake and tsunami on Japan and the global economy.

I see the near-term effects as 1) nuclear contamination over a wide area, 2) care for the survivors and recovery of the dead, and 3) the financial disruption within the country.

Japan is vulnerable. This is a dangerous situation for the East Asian balance of economic and political. The outcome is hard to assess.

Longer-term remains a question mark. I know there is tremendous resilience in Japanese culture. However, the long years of economic stagnation and deflation in (20 in all) and the fragile global recovery lead me to believe there will be significant future challenges for Japan and its people.

There is almost certain to be a negative effect on the global economy as well, slowing growth in the United States.

This is an example that supports my concern:

"The physical havoc wreaked is staggering. As Scott Anderson, senior economist of Wells Fargo Securities, reports, Sendai, the biggest port in northeast Japan, was virtually wiped off the map. Sendai was a major exporter of rubber and marine products, office machinery, paper goods and auto parts. Half a dozen oil refineries in the area that represented a third of the nation's entire refining capacity are shut down and, with electric-power capacity severely curtailed, rolling blackouts are cutting into production."

Abelson, Alan, 2011. Nuclear nightmare. Barron's, Mar. 19.

To add, the area around Sendai has a significant amount of agriculture, raising fears of a contaminated food supply.

It total, the economic damage could total 15 trillion Yen, or about $180 billion according to Barron's and my own estimates. This places a huge financial burden on Japan.

Presentation on Radioactivity


A colleague from Japan passed along this presentation on nuclear power:

Understanding the Radioactivity at Fukashima by Prof. Ben Monreal, UCSB Dept. of Physics

I think one of the important points is the exposure over time principle along with accurate reporting. This is what makes the entire nuclear crisis in Japan concerning to me.

The one example that Prof. Monreal shows in the presentation caught my attention at the time for the same reasons he presents.

In addition, radioactive contamination of the soil and the relation to agriculture are of interest to me. I have still not drawn a conclusion regarding the effect on agriculture in Japan, which has experienced many issues over the years.

Japan - First Hand


I have received this message from a husband and wife who were visiting MIT for several years. They are originally from Sendai, however, they now live in Tokyo:

"Thank you everyone, I could contact to my friends. Some of them lost their houses by Tsunami, but all of them could evacuate. They try to think positive. I'll pass your wishes to them :)"

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Electric Power Plants


For 40 years, my Dad worked in electric power plant operations. He worked for the former Cleveland Electric Illuminating Company, which had six power generation plants including one nuclear. Dad worked at the Avon Lake Plant, the largest in N.E. Ohio.

During the boom times when automotive and other manufacturing expanded rapidly, there was great demand for electric power to run the plants. A stable eclectic supply was crucial.

The A.L. plant was located on the shores of Lake Erie, which provided ample water needed for the steam operations.

When I was a boy, my Dad would take me on a tour of the plant many times. I found it enormously interesting. The men who worked there were very nice. I recall that when Mom and I would arrive, they would let me use the PA system to call my Dad. I would say "Dad, I am here."

With the backdrop of the crisis at the Fukushima plant in Japan, I recall the intricacies of an electric power plant. Dad and I would talk about these all of the time. When the first explosion happened, I knew there was going to be trouble. One theory put forth is the number of cascading problems at the Fukushima plant are cumulative, meaning that perhaps there is a point of no return.

My experience through the eyes of Dad would confirm this theory.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Statement from EU Regarding Nuclear Crisis in Japan

This is an extremely concerning statement made during a speech by the European Union's energy chief:

"Stocks deepened modest losses on Wednesday after Günther Oettinger, the European Union's commissioner for energy, told a European Parliament committee that a nuclear power plant in Japan is 'effectively out of control,' and that the situation could continue to deteriorate."

Peterson, Kristina, 2011. Stocks drop on nuclear warning. The Wall Street Journal, Mar. 16.

This is another statement from the speech:

"'In the coming hours there could be further catastrophic events which could pose a threat to the lives of people on the island,' he said."

Perhaps most concerning to me is the following:

"Mr. Oettinger also said the statements of the utility operating the distressed plant and those of the Japanese government were starting to differ."

Overall, communication regarding the nuclear disaster has been very poor. TEPCO and the Japanese government are releasing confusing and conflicting information. The Wall Street Journal and New York Times seem to be in a battle over ideology rather than reporting the news and providing accurate analysis. The think the WSJ is not doing a very good job. Some of the articles are disjointed. At least the NYT articles are well written.

There is every justification for stock prices to go down. A great deal of uncertainty exists.

Japan: The Emperor's Speech


The appearance of Emperor Akihito on national television making an address about the earthquake, tsunami, and the situation at the Fukushima nuclear power facility is a major event.

This statement by the Emperor indicates the severity of the Fukushima situation:

"Also, I am deeply concerned that the current nuclear plant situation is critical. I truly hope that with so many people working together to help, the situation will not worsen."

CNN Wire Staff, 2011. Japan's emperor in historic speech: 'never give up hope.' CNNWolrd, Mar. 16, 11:43 AM.

The Complexity of the Japanese Distribution System


I did this presentation some time ago for the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals.


It gives a hint of how difficult food distribution can be when massive disruptions like the earthquake and tsunami happen in Japan.

Folks might find the photos interesting.

Japan, Tues. Update


Japanese students arrived at MIT on Mon. having left Tokyo Narita Airport just hours

before the earthquake.


They report this morning that there continue to be aftershocks in Tokyo = 6.0


I have not yet heard from two people I know in the Tokyo area.

WSJ - Little Risk of an All Out Nuclear Disaster


The Wall Street Journal is taking the position that the danger is perhaps overstated regarding the release of radioactive gases in Fukushima.

The feeling is that even a total meltdown would be contained within the reactor vessel. The containment building is a secondary barrier.

The New York Times is reporting that #2 at Fukushima has a big hole in the containment building.

Overall, it remains a confusing situation as information is being interpreted in different ways and TEPCO is releasing information slowly.

Important Web Site for Japan


A former MIT student (Peggy Chi) who now lives in Japan has put together important information regarding events in Japan:


This is her post,

"Dear all, we quickly set up a website using Google Maps that collects online media about this earthquake, hopefully to help people learn more about the facts and to donate. Please please please let me know what you think!!! We plan to distribute this to wider audience. A Japanese and Chinese version will be coming soon. This is completely non-profit. Any suggestions are welcome!"

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

More on the Japanese Nuclear Crisis


This morning, the situation in Japan at the TEPCO Fukushima plant continues to appear critical to me and perhaps has become much worse.

Officials in Tokyo are actively monitoring radiation levels in the city.

The statements made by government and TEPCO officials are vague, evasive, and at times misleading, a somewhat typical patter of behavior in Japan during times of high stress. For many years I have observed similar behavior on a smaller scale in business. The issue is the use of language and translation from Japanese to English along with a reluctance to clearly state problems and risks.

Even the reporting shows extreme inconsistency. Overall, I think the Wall Street Journal is experiencing problems in assessing the situation. Articles seem to be unorganized with paragraphs being out of order. This is a basic thing.

Essential facts are glossed over.

As an example, the WSJ reports this morning,

"Tepco evacuated some of the workers from the unit as a precaution."

Hayashi, Yuka, Dvorak, Phred, 2011. Japan's nuclear crisis escalates. The Wall Street Journal, Mar. 15.

Yet this is the equivalent from the New York Times,

"According to government statements, most of the 800 workers at the plant had been withdrawn, leaving 50 or so workers in a desperate effort to keep the cores of three stricken reactors cooled with seawater pumped by firefighting equipment, while crews battled to put out the fire at the No. 4 reactor, which they claimed to have done just after noon on Tuesday."

Tabuchi, Hiroko, Sanger, David, E., 2011. Japan faces potential nuclear disaster as radiation levels rise. New York Times, Mar. 15.

With the complexity of the TEPCO Fukushima power plant, I consider the withdrawal of perhaps 94% of the workers a major news story. It is impossible to manage a crisis at a nuclear power plant with a skeleton crew. Of course in respect for human life, Japanese officials must believe there is a high level of danger to evacuate so many.

The crisis is spinning out of control and is unpredictable. I do not think anyone truly knows what will happen. This could go on for awhile. There are many short-term and strategic implications.

I remain deeply concerned for the people that I know in the Tokyo area, and others that I know across Japan.

Situation Critical in Japan


This evening, I have read through various news accounts of the nuclear plant situation in Fukushima, Japan. All are confusing and contradictory, as are many of the statements made by Japanese government and industry officials.

What seems evident, various forms of control have been lost.

In turn, this has caused a complete loss of faith that the nuclear plant situation has any chance of being resolved in a way to prevent radioactive contamination.

The Nikkei was down 14% or more today on the news. The online stock ticker could not keep up with the dramatic drop.

There are many short-term and strategic implications from a nuclear meltdown in Japan. It is an extremely serious issue that everyone must pay close attention.

I will be publishing more analysis in subsequent posts.

Of note, a small panic is breaking out on the West coast as fears mount that radiation could travel across the Pacific Ocean and contaminate CA and WA.

Monday, March 14, 2011

Malaysian News


I found this news story particularly distasteful;


Someone from FB brought this to my attention.

These types of things serve no useful purpose during a disaster like what Japan continues to experience.

That this made it past the editors is remarkable.

Preliminary Thoughts on Financial Implications of the Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami.


Given the downgrade by Moody's of global insurance stocks, and,

losses of at least $35 billion from the earthquake,
untold losses from tsunami,
interruption of basic services such as water and transportation,
food shortages,
plant shutdowns,
aftershocks,
potential radiation leaks,
and a massive shutdown of many supply chains including plant closings,

I think there will be a ripple effect on financial markets for some time.

The 6.18% loss for the Nikkei today might be just the start.

Given Japan's huge public debt equal to 200% of GDP along with political infighting lasting for many years, it is a good bet that the economy will suffer. It will be interesting to note if credit rating agencies downgrade Japanese public debt.

Even before the earthquake, analysts projected that Japan could face a debt load of 300% of GDP by the end of the decade because of a rapidly aging population and high need for health care.

Though I have not done any formal estimates, it could be possible that the earthquake and tsunami and the corresponding rebuilding effort could increase Japanese debt by several hundred billion dollars or more.

Privately, some have communicated misgivings about political activities related to the ongoing nuclear plant disaster. This demonstrates to me that even in the face of a major disaster, there continues to be political bickering.

The Japanese political system is not strong.

Overall, this week will be critical. Folks should watch financial markets closely for signs of the future.

My heart goes out to all of the Japanese people, especially those who are suffering.

Stocks Down in Tokyo


The WSJ is reporting that Japanese stocks were down about 5% during the first 10 min. of trade.

This is a bit more than I expected. I think the situation in Japan is worse than we know in the US.

The global economy is so interlocked that a massive earthquake in Japan or currency pegging to the Dollar by China affects the US a great deal.

Japan Earthquake Disaster - New York Times v. Wall Street Journal


I notice a difference in the way that the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times approach reporting on the great Japanese Earthquake.

To date, the NYT seems to more closely reflect the news that I have received from colleagues and friends in Japan. The WSJ articles are more anecdotal with less meaningful content.

I am not sure why there is such a difference between the two newspapers.

Volcanic Eruption in S. Japan


This might be nothing of concern, however, the Japanese Meteorological Agency has reported that a volcano in S. Japan resumed an eruption after several weeks of calm.

The name of the volcano is Shinmoedake. It is located on Kyushu. Ash and rock have bellowed into the atmosphere according to sources. The ash reached 2.5 miles. Some have raised air navigation concerns.

This is a report from the Los Angles Times from six hours ago.

In a related matter, many governments are encouraging foreign citizens to leave the country according the the WSJ Live Updates. Travel to Japan is not recommended.

These developments reflect a serious situation for the country. My heart goes out to the Japanese people.

Unease in Sendai


I have received this FB post via iPhone from a man who works for Siemens,

"Sendai is in the middle of two dangerous nuclear power plants.Seems only west-Yamagata airport and east-Sendai harbor for escaping. WE HOPE FLIGHT OR FERRY COME"

He also sends a picture of a basketball gymnasium filled with people sleeping on the floor. There is a single space heater.

Parts of Sendai appear to be recovering, electric and water are working.

However, I have friends in Tokyo who have parents in the area and there continues to be much confusion. They were only able to make contact through a pay phone. In some cases, the couple cannot contact close friends from Sendai.

I have not been publishing names of the people sending me information because some perhaps desire privacy.

Overall, the situation seems critical in N. Japan. The calm that people have demonstrated might be diminishing because of fears of multiple nuclear power plant disasters.

Information is sporadic about conditions. It is impossible to draw solid conclusions about the condition of N. Japan.

Food Shortages in Japan


This post from a FB friend indicates the confusion that a disaster brings,

"Went to Seibu to get food, found out they're only selling chocolate, candy, purses and make up, let's not forget that tomorrow is White Day"

Seibu is a Japanese department store.

This observation was from the Tsukuba area.

Electric Power and Tokyo


There is much talk about the rolling blackouts in the Tokyo area.

From one FB post,

"Daily demand is 41GW and TEPCO supply can be 31GW, then we need 10GW to be saved. Save Electricity!"

TEPCO - Tokyo Electric Power Company

This is a huge reduction in electricity use for a major metropolitan area like Tokyo and N. Japan.

From another post,

"Electric power in east area of Japan will be cut off on purpose due to shortage. 
The area where I live will blackout during 6:20-10:00am and 6:50-8:30pm."

An example of what universities are doing to comply,

"As you might know, due to power shortage, we'll have *scheduled* power
outage for while.

We'll turn off servers accordingly.

For tomorrow SFC campus will not have power in

JST GMT

06:20 - 10:00 21:20 - 01:00
16:50 - 20:30 07:50 - 11:30


We also don't have power in other campus, so we might have problem in
connectivity, too.

JST GMT

09:20 - 13:00 00:20 - 04:00
18:20 - 22:00 09:20 - 13:00"


This type of disruption will have a major economic effect on areas where there was little earthquake damage. I do not think this is being considered when investment analysts make projections on the financial impact of the earthquake.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Financial Markets and Japan


Though it does not mean much, the Nikkei was down about 4.1% last week. The DJIA was down 1% and NASDAQ was down 2.5%. This information is from the New York Times.

I am undecided as to the extent of global economic damage caused by the Japanese earthquake. There are several conflicting viewpoints. The matter requires a great deal of thought before writing an opinion given that the full extent of the damage is just now becoming known.

Ultimately, finance is the bottom line. Markets tell us much.

My guess is that the Japanese disaster will drive markets down sharply.

Aftershocks in Japan II


As I have mentioned, many of my friends remain concerned about the aftershocks in Japan. Each time an aftershock happens, tensions rise even higher placing people under great stress.

This is just in from a friend,

"It is reported the possibility of residue earthquake above M7 is above 70%"

This is unconfirmed though the source is credible.

I am not an expert in earthquakes, however, it is my understanding that aftershocks should diminish by now.

An expert from Australia has stated that earthquakes are rarely occur in pairs. The above probability seems to contradict this statement.

For a previous post see Aftershocks in Japan.

Update - Improving Conditions in Tokyo


I am receiving reports from friends that things are doing better in the greater Tokyo area. There seems to be more eclectic power, Internet service including WiFi, and operational public transportation.

Evidently, the Japanese Meteorological Agency has revised the magnitude of the earthquake to 9.0. I do not know if this is published news yet.

This is a typical communication that highlights the severity of the situation in the N. of Japan,

"Tokyo is almost recovered and no problem. Kanto prefectures, Kanagawa, Chiba, Ibaragi, Tochigi have many damages including power supply stop & road closes. Tohoku prefectures, Fukushima, Miyagi, Iwate and Aomori have severe damages and so many casualties mainly by Tsunami. Akita and Yamagata have serious damages."

I have received a distressing report a few hours ago that there are more nuclear reactors experiencing cooling problems in the Northern part of Japan. The news in the US is that 2 reactors at a single plant have lost cooling systems and one reactor at a separate plant has a similar problem. All are in Fukushima area. It is not clear regarding the conditions of the other reactors in the N. Rumors are circulating that seem plausible but are speculation at this time.

There are reports of continuing aftershocks within the past few hours. Some are strong. These are frightening people to no end.

I still have not heard from several close friends in Japan. I hope they are ok.